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United States of America
USD moves horizontally against its main competitors: EUR, GBP, and JPY.
US investors are focused on the US-China trade conflict. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump said that there was still a long way to go in negotiations with China and again threatened to increase tariffs for the remaining Chinese exports in the amount of $325 billion, if necessary. Meanwhile, China introduced Minister of Trade Zhong Shan into the negotiating group, which, according to observers, may complicate negotiations, since Zhong Shan is considered a supporter of a tough line. Also on Tuesday, the WTO Court of Appeal ruled that a number of American duties on Chinese goods violated the rules of the trade organization, namely, the tariffs introduced by the United States in 2012 in response to the Chinese government subsidizing a number of technology companies. Now, the PRC may introduce retaliatory sanctions against American goods but in this case, the trade conflict will tighten.
Today’s US construction market data as a whole were poor but could not seriously affect USD. In June, the number of Building Permits decreased from 1.299 million to 1.220 million instead of the expected growth, and Housing Starts number fell from 1.265 million to 1.253 million.
EUR is moving horizontally against its main competitors: JPY, USD, and GBP.
Eurozone inflation data released today were positive. In June, the Consumer Price Index rose from 1.2% to 1.3% YoY, while the Core CPI increased from 0.8% to 1.1%. Nevertheless, the inflation rate is still far from the target level of 2.0%, so the ECB will probably continue to think about introducing new incentives for the European economy. According to the comments of the head of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco, the regulator will assess the need to use specific economic instruments in the near future.
GBP is moving horizontally against its main competitors: JPY, USD, and EUR.
British investors are focused on the publication of inflation data. In June, the Consumer Price Index remained at the same level of 2.0% YoY, while the Core CPI fell from 3.0% to 2.8%. Lower prices for fuel, electricity, and gas were balanced by rising prices for clothing and food. GBP is under long-term pressure of the uncertainty on the Brexit. Investors are worried about the intention of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to fight for the abolition of the "backstop" for Northern Ireland, which increases the risk of a British exit from the EU without a deal. And in this case, according to the calculations of Morgan Stanley analysts, GBP may sharply weaken and reach parity with USD.
JPY is moving horizontally against its main competitors: GBP, USD, and EUR.
Japanese investors are focused on the comments of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda at the G7 summit. He noted that in the near future when making decisions on monetary policy, the regulator will proceed from the assumption that the Japanese economy is moderately recovering. According to Kuroda, some weakness in exports and production will not be able to affect economic growth. According to observers, in the near future, the introduction of new economic incentives by the Bank of Japan will not follow. As for the trade conflict between Japan and South Korea, then, according to statements by high-ranking American diplomats, the United States will make efforts to resolve the conflict. Washington will probably take on the role of a mediator in a trade dispute.
Tomorrow, investors are waiting for the publication of the June data on Japanese trade. It is predicted that the export volume will decrease by 5.6%, and the import volume will fall by 0.4%. The implementation of forecasts may affect JPY negatively.
AUD is weakening against its main competitors: USD, GBP, EUR, and JPY.
On Thursday, investors await the publication of June data from the Australian labor market. It is predicted that the unemployment rate will remain the same at the level of 5.2%, and employment growth will drop significantly from 42.3K to 10.0K. The implementation of the forecast may adversely affect the position of the Australian currency and strengthen the RBA in the intention to continue to reduce interest rates.
Today, oil quotes are moderately rising after a serious decline on Tuesday.
Yesterday, oil prices fell sharply amid comments by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Donald Trump on improving the situation in Iran. Today, the course began to recover. Iranian officials have refuted the statements about the negotiations, and the head of the Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic, Muhammad Javad Zarif, said that they would become possible only if the sanctions were lifted from Iran and the supply of American weapons to the region was stopped. The oil price is also supported by the API report, which reflected the decrease of US oil reserves for the fifth month in a row, falling by 1.401 million barrels this month. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.476 million, and distillates rose by 6.230 million barrels. In the evening, the market is waiting for the publication of a similar report on oil reserves from the EIA. It is predicted that the figure will decline by 2.694 million barrels, which may support the prices.
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