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20-02-2019 03:51 pm
Key Releases

United States of America

Today, the US currency strengthens to the pound and has ambiguous dynamics in pairs with the euro and the yen.

Investors are again focused on the US-Chinese trade negotiations. Now the market looks at them optimistically. On Friday, Chairman Xi Jinping can personally meet with leaders of the US trade delegation Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer, which will show significant progress on the way to a trade deal. In addition, Reuters reports that US President Donald Trump is considering extending the term of the truce by another 60 days in order to give negotiators more time to finalize the details of the agreement.

During the day, statistics on retail sales in December is also expected to be published. According to forecasts, the indicator may reduce from 0.2% to 0.1%, which may cause pressure on USD.


Today, EUR is growing against GBP and shows an ambiguous dynamics with JPY and USD.

Today, data on GDP in the Eurozone and Germany in 4Q2018 were published, which caused a serious movement in the market. Eurozone GDP remains the same: at 0.2% QoQ and at 1.2% YoY. German data were below forecasts: in Q4, the German economy avoided a reduction for the second quarter in a row but did not show any growth amounting to 0.0%. YoY, GDP remained at the level of 0.9%. The growth was hindered by a general slowdown in global growth, as well as a decline in car sales.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening today against its main competitors -  EUR, USD, and JPY.

The pound is pressured by uncertainty with Brexit. Today, deputies of the House of Commons should discuss and vote on further steps in the negotiation process. However, it became known yesterday that a number of deputies of the Conservative Party could vote against the proposals of Prime Minister Theresa May and thus send a negative signal to Brussels, bringing the possibility of a "divorce" without a deal.


The yen is strengthening today against GBP and has ambiguous dynamics with the dollar and the euro.

Statistics released today showed Japanese GDP growth in 4Q2018 by 0.3% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which can be considered a good result after the economic contraction in Q3. GDP growth was provided by an increase in capital expenditures of companies by 2.4%. However, further economic growth may be hindered by a new sales tax, which the Japanese government is going to impose this year.

On Friday, investors expect the publication of data on industrial output in Japan. In December, it may reduce by 0.1%, which will put pressure on the yen.


AUD today is generally strengthening to the main competitors – the US dollar, the euro, and the pound.

The Australian currency is growing in view of hopes for a trade deal between the United States and China and the possible postponement of the end of the trade truce. AUD is also supported by positive data on trade in China. In January, the volume of China's exports grew by 9.1%, while the volume of imports declined less significantly than investors had expected, by only 1.5%. In the evening, the market is waiting for the speech of the assistant to the head of the RBA, Christopher Kent, with the report "Financial Conditions and the Australian Dollar", which may contain hints on the regulator's further policy.


During the day, oil prices continue to grow.

The market ignored the latest EIA report, according to which the volume of US oil reserves rose by 3.633 million barrels. Gasoline stocks increased by 0.408 million, and stocks of distillates - by 1.187 million barrels. Oil production remained the same, at 11.9 million barrels per day. Prices are supported by the possible conclusion of a trade deal between the PRC and the US, a reduction in the production of OPEC countries, and a shortage of sour oil due to the US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.