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03:58 pmKey releases

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20-02-2019 03:58 pm
Key releases

United States of America

Today, USD is weakening against EUR and GBP but it is moving horizontally against JPY.

Today is a day off in the US, the exchanges are closed, so the intensity of trading is reduced. However, investors continue to follow the course of trade negotiations between the United States and China. The last round of consultations ended in Beijing on Friday. There was no major trade deal but hope for a settlement of the trade conflict remained. This week, negotiations will resume in the US, and President Donald Trump has already hinted that he could postpone the new increase in tariffs on Chinese exports in order to take time for further discussions. Also, USD is under pressure by the introduction of a state of emergency in the United States, which can lead to a redistribution of budget funds, as well as generate a new political crisis, as members of the Democratic Party will certainly try to abolish this regime through congressional voting or through court.


EUR today is strengthening against the main competitors – JPY, GBP, and USD.

Investors are focused on the US-China trade negotiations, as well as the Brexit situation. At a meeting in Beijing, the United States and China could not make a deal, which caused market frustration. However, the hope of resolving the conflict maintained since a new round of consultations will take place this week, and the intention of President Donald Trump to extend the deadline for the talks later than March 1 is seen as a sign of their success. Brexit negotiations cause less optimism. Here the situation continues to be a dead end. The EU does not intend to change the terms of the deal, and the British Parliament does not want to accept it in its current form, which increases the chances of a hard Brexit.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against EUR but is strengthening against USD and JPY.

Investors continue to follow the negotiations on Brexit. Since the British Parliament refuses to accept the deal in its current form, the Prime Minister Theresa May has no choice but to ask for concessions from EU officials. The next series of negotiations should take place this week. May intends to meet with the head of European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and hold a series of meetings with the leaders of EU countries. Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt will visit Germany, Denmark, and Belgium, and Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay will consult with EU Principal Negotiator Michel Barnier. However, the result of all these meetings seems questionable. In order to avoid a “divorce” without a deal, the British government may ask for an extension of the terms of negotiations later than March 29 of the current year.


JPY is weakening against GBP and EUR but it is moving horizontally against USD.

Pressure on JPY is exerted by reducing the volume of factory orders in Japan. In December, the figure fell by 0.1% (to 862.6 billion yen), and on an annualized basis, its growth was significantly lower than forecast and amounted to 0.9%. To the greatest extent, the number of orders decreased by oil and coal mining companies but increased by telecommunication ones.


AUD today is strengthening against USD and JPY but moves horizontally against EUR and GBP.

The currency is supported by the hope of investors that a broad trade deal between the United States and China will be concluded. The market is also waiting for RBA Meeting Minutes release on Tuesday, as traders expect hints at the possibility of easing the interest rates. Earlier, the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, noted that he considered more likely a further increase in rates but now the policy of the RBA would be more balanced, and this implied other options.


Today, oil prices are trying to grow unsuccessfully.

In addition to hoping for a US-PRC trade deal, the course is positively affected by the suspension of oil production at the world's largest offshore field Safaniyah due to damage to the power cable, according to sources in Saudi Arabia's state-owned company Saudi Aramco.